Patriots Pre-Season Breakdown: The Quarterbacks

With the Stanley Cup Finals in full swing and under two months until the first NFL preseason game, it’s the perfect time to start looking at New England’s roster. I’ll go through the depth chart, position by position, looking at the players, their past performances and future expectations for training camp and the next season of football.

Quarterback Overview

It’s an easy start to the series, as the New England Patriots’ quarterbacking slot might be the most stable in the league. At least it was, until Bill Belichick signed Tim Tebow to a veteran minimum contract at the start of mini camp last week. Can you believe I mentioned Tebow before Tom Brady or Ryan Mallett, who are clearly the top two quarterbacks on the team? That’s the sort of role Tebow might have this season: a distraction.

Player by Player

1.      Tom Brady

Tom Terrific was terrific again last season. He completed 63% of his passes for over 4800 yards while throwing 34 touchdowns and only 8 interceptions. Even with 2 fumbles, Brady had over three times as many touchdowns as turnovers. He’s a machine, taking one of the most complicated offenses in league history and running it like a puppet master. His second half comeback against the 49ers was legendary. Although the game ended in a loss, that performance epitomizes Tom Brady’s strengths. He’s efficient and smart. His execution of the no-huddle offense runs opposing defenses into the ground. He knows exactly how to take whichever players he has on the field and score with them. Of course it helps that he’s surrounded by some incredible players.

But he isn’t perfect. A shaky start by the offensive line led him to being sacked 27 times in the 16 game season. And his playoff performance against the Ravens was subpar. Brady started his career with 3 Super Bowl wins and a perfect 10-0 postseason record. Since a Wild Card win against the New York Jets in 2005, Brady and the Patriots have been a flat 7-7, and Brady himself has had some pretty disappointing performances.

The way the Patriots are built right now, Brady needs to have consistently good performances for the team to win, especially in the playoffs (by the way, with the way the AFC East is shaping up, the Patriots should at least make the playoffs again this coming season). Unfortunately in January and February, Brady has failed to put up two great performances in a row, let alone the three or four needed to win the Super Bowl. In 2007, he set a playoff record for highest single game completion percentage by throwing 26/28 for 262 yards and 3 touchdowns. In the next two games, he went 51/81 for 475 yards and 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He had a great game followed by one terrible one, then a mediocre performance in the Super Bowl.

Tom Brady, 2007 Playoffs

	Comp	Att	%	Yds	TD	INT
Divisional Round vs Jaguars	26	28	0.928571	262	3	0
AFC Championship vs Chargers	22	33	0.666667	209	2	3
Super Bowl vs Giants	29	48	0.604167	266	1	0

Last postseason was similar. Even with Rob Gronkowski leaving with an injury, he annihilated the Houston Texans, but then put up a stinker against the Ravens.

Tom Brady, 2012 Playoffs

	Comp	Att	%	Yds	TD	INT
Divisional Round vs Texans	25	40	0.625	344	3	0
AFC Championship vs Ravens	29	54	0.537037	320	1	2

As Brady goes, the Patriots go. He needs to perform well for the team to win, and he needs to perform better in the playoffs than he has over the past few seasons.

2.      Ryan Mallett

Mallett has spent the past few seasons as the designated clipboard holder of the New England Patriots. He threw 4 passes all of last season. 3 (and 1 completion for 17 yards) were against the St. Louis Rams in the 45-7 London blowout. He went 0 for 1 against the Houston Texans when Belichick sent the backups in the run out clock in that Monday Night trouncing. The highlight of his season might have been when he lined up as a punt protector on a 4^th and 2 in the AFC Championship game against Baltimore. What was clearly an attempt to run a fake punt was stymied when the Ravens called timeout.

Mallett showed promise coming out of college, especially when Bill decided to take him with the 74^th pick in the 3^rd round of the 2011 draft. His first round talent was hurt by a slurry of rumors regarding disciplinary and drug problems the Arkansas star faced during his senior season, which led him to be a perfect value pick for the Patriots. Since 2011, he hasn’t really proven himself to be anything but a backup. Although he hasn’t been called on to do much, he also hasn’t done much in camp or preseason to shine. His size and shape are reminiscent of Drew Bledsoe and he has a cannon of an arm. But he’s stiff and immobile and often inaccurate on short to intermediate throws. A few more seasons in the Patriots’ system and under Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels could allow Mallett to improve into a potential replacement for Brady whenever TB12 decides to retire. But that seems like a long ways away. There were rumors that teams might make the mistake of trading for the untested backup, maybe in exchange for a 2^nd or 3^rd round pick. But those talks are unfounded, so for the time being, Mallett will stay on the sidelines with his clipboard.

3.      Tim Tebow

Tim Tebow appears to be the 3^rd quarterback on a team that has only kept 2 quarterbacks on the roster for the past few seasons. In order for him to stay on the team, he will either have to beat out Ryan Mallett for the backup quarterback position or he will have to prove himself to be a valuable enough at other positions on the field. Although there’s always hope for development and improvement, like in Ryan Mallett’s case, I don’t have much confidence in Tim Tebow’s quarterbacking ability. Firstly, the Patriots run an intricate and complex offense. It relies heavily on option routes, where both the quarterback and the receiver must examine the defense before deciding where to go with the ball.

Importantly, the quarterback and receiver must agree with each other and trust that they both see the same keys in the defense. It’s an offense that has given a lot of different players trouble, from veterans like Joey Galloway and Chad Ochocinco to rookies like Taylor Price. Rumors swirl that Tebow already isn’t that great picking up new playbooks and he certainly hasn’t proven himself to be the type of meticulous and disciplined pocket passer that the Patriots rely on to run the team. Tebow will both have to pick up the offense  and outperform Ryan Mallett, who has a significant head start with the complexities, if he wants to maintain his position on the team as a quarterback.

It’s more likely that Tebow spends this season at other positions where he can be a dual threat. He may line up as a fullback in the backfield, where he could block, run with the ball, catch it out of the backfield or even throw. Maybe he’ll end up as a full-time punt protector, always posing the threat to fake the kick and go for the first down. It’s also likely that Belichick sees Tebow as a long term project needing more time than a few months of training camp. If that’s the case, he may be sent down to the practice squad or even placed on injured reserve for the season. And, not to give any Tebow-haters too much hope, there’s a chance he might not even make the team. Tebow signed a minimum contract with no guaranteed money. Cutting him loose would be as cheap and riskless as signing him was.

Final Thoughts

To say that the quarterback position of the Patriots is pretty solid would be an understatement. Tom Brady should be able to put up another season of solid stats and, as always, if he plays well, the Patriots will win. It’s that simple.