Patriots Pre-Season Breakdown: The Running Backs

 

It’s just over a month until the first NFL preseason game, so it’s the perfect time to start looking at New England’s roster. I’ll go through the depth chart, position by position, looking at the players, their past performances and future expectations for training camp and the next season of football.

Running Back Overview

Last season the running back position contained some surprises. Stevan Ridley had a stellar season, racking up over 1200 yards and 12 touchdowns on 290 carries. Shane Vereen had a breakout game against the Texans in the playoffs, catching 5 passes for 83 yards and 2 touchdowns and rushing for another score. But both of those performances were complementary. Last year the Patriots leaned on Rob Gronkowski, Wes Welker and Tom Brady and ran the ball mostly as a change of pace, rather than relying on the rushing attack to carry the offense. With uncertainty at the receiving positions, the Pats may have to rely more on their running backs. Will they be up to the task?

Player by Player

1.      Stevan Ridley

Ridley had an enormous second year jump. He nearly tripled his yardage from year one to year two, ending his sophomore season with 1263 yards and a solid 4.4 yards per attempt. Ridley is a good, solid running back, and is even more special because of his quickness and ability to make a big play. Especially with Gronkowski out for the beginning of the season and other important players from last year gone from the team, Ridley should expect an expanded work load for at least the first few weeks of 2013. But there are some concerns about the young player.

The first is injuries. Ridley took a big hit in the AFC Championship game against the Ravens. His and Bernard Pollard’s heads met and Ridley took the brunt of it. The way he crumpled to the field indicated that he have lost consciousness after the helmet to helmet hit. Although the hit itself was a bit of a fluke, it is indicative of the kind of punishment Ridley would face if he does become a full-time starter and a workhorse for the Patriots’ offense. If he does start to get 20 or so carries a game (which hasn’t happened in a Patriots’ offense since Corey Dillon’s superb 2004 season) Ridley is going to end up taking some shots, some big hits that will knock him on his ass. He will have to be willing and ready to take that kind of punishment, and it looks like he’s prepared for it. At the beginning of the offseason, reports came out that Ridley looked bigger than last year, which would help him soak up the punishment that a lead running back takes over the course of an NFL season.

Ridley’s first season as a lead back also revealed some fumble concerns. His 4 fumbles put him close to the top of the league. His performance during the Sunday night game against the 49ers is even more worrisome. The Pats were clearly looking to run the ball on a cold and rainy December night, but Ridley just could not keep a hold of it. He only turned the ball over one time during that game, but it was concerning enough that he was essentially benched after the first quarter. Danny Woodhead would end up in the backfield for almost all of the Patriots’ second half comeback.

Even with some of these concerns, Ridley seems a promising part of the Patriots’ offense. He should get more carries this season, especially during the early season when Gronkowski might miss time or not be at his best. He could be a 1500 yard runner if he stays healthy and consistent.

2.      Shane Vereen

Vereen is the most intriguing player on the offense this season. Anyone worried about the Pats losing the production of Wes Welker and Woodhead should look to Vereen, who could help fill the holes left by those two players in addition to bringing a set of new skills to the table.

Vereen’s speed and athleticism make him a multi-dimensional threat. As a runner, he’s most suited to taking inside handoffs up the middle, a la Woodhead or Kevin Faulk. If he lines up in the backfield, fans can expect him to catch a fair number of passes on swings into the flat or screen plays. In open space, this guy’s quickness could be killer.

But that’s only half of Vereen’s game. Although it’s only one game, his performance against the Texans last January shows Shane’s potential as a receiving threat. In that game, he lined up across the field. Although his size and agility would argue he is best suited for the slot position, Vereen has the speed to play on the outside of a formation. On his big touchdown catch against the Texans, he motioned out of the backfield and stood a few feet from the sideline. Because of his initial position in the backfield, he had been matched up against middle linebacker Barrett Ruud. Ruud followed Vereen to the outside, where he was promptly burned on the big touchdown. Vereen’s potential as a receiver is huge, and with Welker, Woodhead and now Aaron Hernandez gone, there will be plenty of room for him have a breakout year.

3.      Leon Washington

Washington won’t spend much time in the backfield. Indications are that the former Jet and Seahawk was signed to play as a designated kick and punt returner, which is good news, because the return game has been pretty mediocre for most of the past decade. As a punt returner, Julian Edelman has made some impressive plays, but his injuries and off-field issues have limited his production. Sometimes the sure-handed Welker would line up to return punts. He would always catch them, which was appreciated, but he never went far with the ball (I can’t find video of it, but I’m always reminded of Matthew Slater trying to return a kick against the Steelers three seasons ago, and having the ball bounce off of his facemask). Kick returns were even worse. The way the Pats ran them, whether with Lawrence Maroney or in more recent seasons Devin McCourty, they seemed like longer, drawn out versions of touchbacks, except with a greater risk of being well inside the 20. Good returns can be huge plays (see here), and Leon should make a lot of good returns.

4.      Brandon Bolden

Bolden had a good start to the season, culminating in a 137 yard effort against the Bills in Week 4, until injuries and a suspension kept him out for the latter part of the season. Bolden runs with power. He’s goes downhill and he’s not afraid of taking on a tackler, much the antithesis of the shifty Ridley. He gets most of his carries when Brady is under center, which limits role in an offense that plays so often out of the shotgun. Bolden’s style of running might be a good change of pace; it was good enough to get him onto the 53 man roster last season, but his presence on the field might be a tip off to opposing defenses that a power run is coming on the next play. He doesn’t fit perfectly into the Patriots’ no-huddle passing offense, but he could give it an added, power-running dimension that it lacked in previous seasons.

5.      LeGarrette Blount

Blount came to the Patriots as a result of a trade with the Buccaneers. The Pats sent wannabe track star Jeff Demps in return for the big bruiser. If the 5’11” Bolden runs downhill, 6’1” and 245 lb Blount rolls down mountains. In college at Oregon and during his short time in Tampa Bay, Blount’s physicality has made some spectacular, highlight-reel plays. He does seem to have a temper, which may have led to his exit from Tampa, and I have questions about how he fits into the Patriots offense. The Pats like to be able to do multiple things with one personnel grouping. Last season, they played a lot with Gronk, Hernandez, Ridley, Lloyd and Welker. With those players on the field, they could do almost anything: from throwing deep to a tight end, short to Welker, a screen to Ridley or running off tackle with Ridley. A lot of that ability rests on the versatility of the individual players. Ridley is effective at running the ball and is decent enough catching it out of the backfield. Is Blount as versatile? For that matter, is Bolden? If they aren’t, they won’t see much of the field once the season starts. This is especially concerning for Blount, who has yet to prove himself in the Patriots system. If he can’t make plays, he might not even make the team.

6.      George Winn

7.      James Develin

Both of these players seem to be around for practice repetitions. Ridley suffered a minor injury during OTAs, which seems to have prompted the signing of rookie free agent Winn. Develin spent last season in New England as a fullback but never stepped onto the field. It’s most likely that they’ll take snaps during training camp and one or both will be cut before the season starts. Develin might have a better chance, as the Patriots may be in need of a blocking fullback or H-back after the release of Hernandez. Maybe one of the two will shine during camp or preseason, but it is unlikely that both will make the final roster.

Final Thoughts

The Patriots seem set at running back. They’ll lean on Ridley to keep up and improve upon last season’s production and look to Vereen to expand his role in the offense, especially as a receiving threat. This position could be the one that breaks out and carries the team to success, like the tight ends have done the past two seasons. Given the uncertainty that surrounds the other offensive skill positions, the running backs might have to, or the Pats offense will have a huge letdown in production.

Patriots Pre-Season Breakdown: The Tight Ends

With the Stanley Cup Finals just finished and under two months until the first NFL preseason game, it’s the perfect time to start looking at New England’s roster. I’ll go through the depth chart, position by position, looking at the players, their past performances and future expectations for training camp and the next season of football.

Position Overview

Over the past few seasons, tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez have been the most important players on the New England Patriots, after Tom Brady and Wes Welker. After missing on athletic tight ends like Daniel Graham and Ben Watson in previous drafts, Bill Belichick got it right in 2010 when he drafted Gronkowski in the 2^nd round and Hernandez in the 4^th. Since that draft, the two have been stellar. Gronkowski has accumulated 38 touchdowns in three seasons, with the most recent one severely shortened due to injury. Hernandez has played most of his time split out wide, where he can make plays in the open field. Michael Hoomanawanui and Daniel Fells rounded out the position last season, combining for only 9 total receptions.

Belichick picked both of his star tight ends later in the draft than their respective talents would have indicated. Gronk slipped to the 2^nd round due to struggles with a back injury that kept him out for his senior season. Hernandez dropped to the 4^th because of rumored off-field problems, including stories about drug use. Unfortunately for the Patriots, these problems have caught up with the team. Gronkowski has missed most of the off-season after nursing a broken arm, then recently underwent surgery on his back – which could have him out of commission until after the start of the season. Hernandez has recently made the news after police began treating him as a person of interest in a Massachusetts murder case. What was once a position of strength for the Patriots has become another off-season question mark.

Player-by-Player

1.      Rob Gronkowski

At 6’6” and 265 pounds, Rob Gronkowski is an imposing player and a perfect tight end. He can block, run, break tackles and catch. And he can score touchdowns. Gronkowski has 38 career touchdowns in 43 career games. More impressively, his 38 touchdowns came on 187 receptions. Just about once every five times he catches the ball, Gronkowski scores a touchdown. By comparison, over his entire career tight end Tony Gonzalez averaged about 12 catches per touchdown[1]. Hall of Famer Shannon Sharpe averaged about 13 per touchdown. Former Patriot great Ben Coates had about 10 per touchdown. Antonio Gates has scored a touchdown for every 8 catches. Jerry Rice scored once for every 8 catches. In his record-setting 1987 season, Rice scored 22 touchdowns[2] on 65 receptions, or one score for about every 3 receptions (in a strike-shortened 12 game season). In his record-breaking 2007 season, Randy Moss scored 23 TDs on 98 receptions, or once every 4 receptions.

Player	Position	Receptions	TD Receptions	Rec per TD Rec
Shannon Sharpe	TE	815	62	13.1
Tony Gonzalez	TE	1242	103	12.1
Ben Coates	TE	499	50	10.0
Jerry Rice	WR	1549	197	7.9
Antonio Gates	TE	642	83	7.7
Terrell Owens	WR	1078	153	7.0
Randy Moss	WR	982	156	6.3
Rob Gronkowski	TE	187	38	4.9

Gronkowski’s numbers support what his physical size, strength and speed would indicate about him: he is a prototypical red zone threat. The Patriots funnel the ball to him when their offense is in scoring position, and Gronkowski is almost unbeatable in that area of the field. If his career lasts another 8 or 10 years, he probably won’t catch as many passes as anyone on the above list. But he would absolutely shatter their touchdown totals.

The problem for the Patriots is that it doesn’t look like Gronkowski’s career will last another decade. Perhaps the broken arm he suffered while blocking a PAT this past season can be written off as a fluke. But the high ankle sprain that limited him in Super Bowl 46 is more worrying. That injury was the result of Gronkowski’s tenacious ferocity. He drags people on his back and takes extra, punishing hits because he fights for extra yards. His body might not be able to take that punishment for too much longer, especially if this offseason’s back surgery is any indication. Apparently undertaken shave down or partially remove a bothersome spinal disk, that surgery is especially worrying because of its similarity to the surgery Gronk went through in his college days. This guy takes a pounding. Will these surgeries catch up to him?

2.      Aaron Hernandez

Hernandez has nearly limitless potential. But troubles on the field and especially off of it threaten the longevity of his career. Injuries last season cut his production almost in half. 79 receptions in 14 games in 2011 became 51 in 10. 910 yards became 483. However, when he played, he produced, perhaps because the Patriots started to rely on him and his playmaking abilities more than ever last year. His skill could place him at nearly any offensive skill position. He could line up on the end of the line or split out wide. He’s even taken handoffs and swing passes out of the backfield. Regardless of where he lines up, his playmaking ability shines when he finds himself in the open field, although he seems to always juke to the inside while running up the field. Again Hernandez’ talent and the production he’s had over his short career are promising.

Forgive me for writing from a Patriots, football-based perspective, but Hernandez’ career with New England appears to be cut short after he has been implicated in a murder investigation into the death of Odin Lloyd. Fans of all sports invest so much time, energy and money into “their” teams and the players/gods that fill those teams’ rosters. Whenever a tragedy like this comes around, it’s hard to remember that a man, Odin Lloyd lost his life to early and a family lost a son or a husband or a father or all three. Even Hernandez, although he deserves justice if he did perpetrate this crime, should be pitied for the poor choices he (may have) made, the family, young daughter, career and future that he may lose. Perhaps it’s hard to remember those things when tragedies like this invade the sporting sphere of culture because we look to sports, in part, in order to forget those horrible things about life.

3.      Michael Hoomanawanui

Hooman is a big body, mostly brought on the field last season to block as the third tight end to Gronk and Hernandez. His stretch of brilliance last season came during weeks 15 and 16. Against the 49ers, he caught a 41 yard bomb up the seam during the Patriots’ furious second half comeback. The next week, against the Jaguars, he caught 2 passes for 46 yards, including a 32 yarder. If the Pats don’t have Gronkowski at the start of the season, they’ll have to replace his production by committee. In that case, Hoomanawanui would find most of his targets coming in the middle of the field, especially running up the seams behind linebackers and in front of safeties, as Gronk often did.

4.      Daniel Fells

Last season, Fells found his way onto the field as a fullback, blocking out of the backfield. He appeared in 13 games, but only caught 4 passes for 85 yards. That marked a massive dropoff in his personal production. In his previous three seasons, one with Denver and two with St. Louis, Fells caught 81 passes for 920 yards and 8 total touchdowns, which is production more typical of a second or third tight end on the depth chart. Fells could prove to be a valuable member of the committee that fills in for the top two tight ends on the depth chart. His career statistics aren’t extraordinary, but they are indicative of a player with decent pass catching ability. With Tom Brady, decent pass catchers can become key cogs in an offensive system.

5.      Jake Ballard

After two seasons and a Super Bowl with the New York Giants, Jake Ballard made his way to Foxboro through unusual circumstances. After suffering a torn ACL during training camp, Ballard was placed on injured reserve. Because the move was made during the offseason, Ballard had to pass through waivers, where he was claimed – controversially – by Bill Belichick. He spent all of last season on the bench, recovering from his injury.

Of the three tight ends behind Hernandez and Gronkowski on the depth chart, Ballard is the most promising. He played consistently in only one season of his three in the NFL. In 2011 he played in 14 games, caught 38 passes for 604 yards and 4 touchdowns. For a 6-6, 265 lb tight end, he showed decent athleticism, although not as much as Gronkowski. Assuming he plays this season like he did two years ago, he would take the lead role in the tight end committee, assuming most, but not all, of the role normally taken on by Gronk.

6.      Brandon Ford

This rookie out of Clemson signed a month ago as a rookie free agent. He played well in college, finishing his tenure as a Tiger with a better-than-decent 8 touchdown season. A 4.74 40-yard-dash and a 4.64 shuttle time indicate that Ford has pretty good athleticism, although not enough to make him a drafted player. If he makes the roster (and he might. The Pats usually carried 5 tight ends on their roster last year), he could push someone like Hoomanawanui deeper down the depth chart, but it may be likely that he was signed on as a camp body, to add to the physicality and competitiveness of training before being cut at the end of the offseason.

Final Thoughts

If there is ever an opportunity for Bill Belichick to prove the importance of quality depth over star individuals, it’s this season. The tight end position, which has been the strength of the Patriots’ offense and maybe the most important component of the team’s high-scoring, high-flying attack, is in turmoil. Multiple offseason surgeries have all but ruled Gronkowski out for the first weeks of the season, and it doesn’t look like Aaron Hernandez will be around either. It seems unlikely that, if the Patriots are missing their top two receiving threats, they will be as successful an offense as they have in years past.

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[1] Gonzalez has the most career touchdowns and receptions for a tight end in NFL history. He is second on the all-time receptions list.

[2] Plus one rushing touchdown

Patriots Pre-Season Breakdown: The Quarterbacks

With the Stanley Cup Finals in full swing and under two months until the first NFL preseason game, it’s the perfect time to start looking at New England’s roster. I’ll go through the depth chart, position by position, looking at the players, their past performances and future expectations for training camp and the next season of football.

Quarterback Overview

It’s an easy start to the series, as the New England Patriots’ quarterbacking slot might be the most stable in the league. At least it was, until Bill Belichick signed Tim Tebow to a veteran minimum contract at the start of mini camp last week. Can you believe I mentioned Tebow before Tom Brady or Ryan Mallett, who are clearly the top two quarterbacks on the team? That’s the sort of role Tebow might have this season: a distraction.

Player by Player

1.      Tom Brady

Tom Terrific was terrific again last season. He completed 63% of his passes for over 4800 yards while throwing 34 touchdowns and only 8 interceptions. Even with 2 fumbles, Brady had over three times as many touchdowns as turnovers. He’s a machine, taking one of the most complicated offenses in league history and running it like a puppet master. His second half comeback against the 49ers was legendary. Although the game ended in a loss, that performance epitomizes Tom Brady’s strengths. He’s efficient and smart. His execution of the no-huddle offense runs opposing defenses into the ground. He knows exactly how to take whichever players he has on the field and score with them. Of course it helps that he’s surrounded by some incredible players.

But he isn’t perfect. A shaky start by the offensive line led him to being sacked 27 times in the 16 game season. And his playoff performance against the Ravens was subpar. Brady started his career with 3 Super Bowl wins and a perfect 10-0 postseason record. Since a Wild Card win against the New York Jets in 2005, Brady and the Patriots have been a flat 7-7, and Brady himself has had some pretty disappointing performances.

The way the Patriots are built right now, Brady needs to have consistently good performances for the team to win, especially in the playoffs (by the way, with the way the AFC East is shaping up, the Patriots should at least make the playoffs again this coming season). Unfortunately in January and February, Brady has failed to put up two great performances in a row, let alone the three or four needed to win the Super Bowl. In 2007, he set a playoff record for highest single game completion percentage by throwing 26/28 for 262 yards and 3 touchdowns. In the next two games, he went 51/81 for 475 yards and 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He had a great game followed by one terrible one, then a mediocre performance in the Super Bowl.

Tom Brady, 2007 Playoffs

	Comp	Att	%	Yds	TD	INT
Divisional Round vs Jaguars	26	28	0.928571	262	3	0
AFC Championship vs Chargers	22	33	0.666667	209	2	3
Super Bowl vs Giants	29	48	0.604167	266	1	0

Last postseason was similar. Even with Rob Gronkowski leaving with an injury, he annihilated the Houston Texans, but then put up a stinker against the Ravens.

Tom Brady, 2012 Playoffs

	Comp	Att	%	Yds	TD	INT
Divisional Round vs Texans	25	40	0.625	344	3	0
AFC Championship vs Ravens	29	54	0.537037	320	1	2

As Brady goes, the Patriots go. He needs to perform well for the team to win, and he needs to perform better in the playoffs than he has over the past few seasons.

2.      Ryan Mallett

Mallett has spent the past few seasons as the designated clipboard holder of the New England Patriots. He threw 4 passes all of last season. 3 (and 1 completion for 17 yards) were against the St. Louis Rams in the 45-7 London blowout. He went 0 for 1 against the Houston Texans when Belichick sent the backups in the run out clock in that Monday Night trouncing. The highlight of his season might have been when he lined up as a punt protector on a 4^th and 2 in the AFC Championship game against Baltimore. What was clearly an attempt to run a fake punt was stymied when the Ravens called timeout.

Mallett showed promise coming out of college, especially when Bill decided to take him with the 74^th pick in the 3^rd round of the 2011 draft. His first round talent was hurt by a slurry of rumors regarding disciplinary and drug problems the Arkansas star faced during his senior season, which led him to be a perfect value pick for the Patriots. Since 2011, he hasn’t really proven himself to be anything but a backup. Although he hasn’t been called on to do much, he also hasn’t done much in camp or preseason to shine. His size and shape are reminiscent of Drew Bledsoe and he has a cannon of an arm. But he’s stiff and immobile and often inaccurate on short to intermediate throws. A few more seasons in the Patriots’ system and under Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels could allow Mallett to improve into a potential replacement for Brady whenever TB12 decides to retire. But that seems like a long ways away. There were rumors that teams might make the mistake of trading for the untested backup, maybe in exchange for a 2^nd or 3^rd round pick. But those talks are unfounded, so for the time being, Mallett will stay on the sidelines with his clipboard.

3.      Tim Tebow

Tim Tebow appears to be the 3^rd quarterback on a team that has only kept 2 quarterbacks on the roster for the past few seasons. In order for him to stay on the team, he will either have to beat out Ryan Mallett for the backup quarterback position or he will have to prove himself to be a valuable enough at other positions on the field. Although there’s always hope for development and improvement, like in Ryan Mallett’s case, I don’t have much confidence in Tim Tebow’s quarterbacking ability. Firstly, the Patriots run an intricate and complex offense. It relies heavily on option routes, where both the quarterback and the receiver must examine the defense before deciding where to go with the ball.

Importantly, the quarterback and receiver must agree with each other and trust that they both see the same keys in the defense. It’s an offense that has given a lot of different players trouble, from veterans like Joey Galloway and Chad Ochocinco to rookies like Taylor Price. Rumors swirl that Tebow already isn’t that great picking up new playbooks and he certainly hasn’t proven himself to be the type of meticulous and disciplined pocket passer that the Patriots rely on to run the team. Tebow will both have to pick up the offense  and outperform Ryan Mallett, who has a significant head start with the complexities, if he wants to maintain his position on the team as a quarterback.

It’s more likely that Tebow spends this season at other positions where he can be a dual threat. He may line up as a fullback in the backfield, where he could block, run with the ball, catch it out of the backfield or even throw. Maybe he’ll end up as a full-time punt protector, always posing the threat to fake the kick and go for the first down. It’s also likely that Belichick sees Tebow as a long term project needing more time than a few months of training camp. If that’s the case, he may be sent down to the practice squad or even placed on injured reserve for the season. And, not to give any Tebow-haters too much hope, there’s a chance he might not even make the team. Tebow signed a minimum contract with no guaranteed money. Cutting him loose would be as cheap and riskless as signing him was.

Final Thoughts

To say that the quarterback position of the Patriots is pretty solid would be an understatement. Tom Brady should be able to put up another season of solid stats and, as always, if he plays well, the Patriots will win. It’s that simple.